Estimation of the actual disease burden of human H7N9 infection in Jiangsu of eastern China from March 2013 to September 2017
Haodi Huang
Wang Ma
Ke Xu
Keith Dear
Huiyan Yu
Xian Qi
Changjun Bao
Minghao Zhou
Xiang Huo
摘要：The actual incidence of human H7N9 infection is supposed to be much higher than the documented laboratoryconfirmed cases.In this study,we estimated the number of the actual H7N9 cases in Jiangsu,China using a probabilistic multiplier model.Then,disability adjusted life years (DALYs),direct and indirect economic loss caused by this disease were calculated and analyzed.Till September 2017,the estimated total number of H7N9 cases was 2 952 [median,90％ probability range (PR):1 487-22 094],which was 11.8 times (5.9-88.4) as large as the reported number.The median morbidity was estimated to be 4 (90％ PR:2-29) per 100 000 population.The total DALYs loss was 16 548 years,and the total economic loss (direct and indirect) was estimated to be RMB 1 044 618 758 (US$16.7 M).The average economic loss for per case and for per year was RMB 353 868 (US$ 56 440) and RMB 232 137 502 (US$ 37.0 M),respectively.The actual burden of human H7N9 infections was much heavier than what was documented.Our study provided an approach to estimate actual burden of infectious diseases using laboratory-confirmation.
机标关键词：
分类号：R511.7(传染病)
资助基金：X.H.,X.Q.,C.B.and M.Z.were supported by the Science & Technology Demonstration Project for Emerging Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention under Grant (BE2015714 & BE2017749)X.H.,X.Q.,C.B.and M.Z.were also supported by the Key Medical Discipline of Jiangsu Science & Technology Project under Gra(2015ZX09101044)the Jiangsu Provincial Medical Youth Talents under Grant(QNRC2016539)
论文发表日期：2019-01-01
在线出版日期：2025-08-15（本平台首次上网日期，不代表文献的发表时间）
页数：8( 325-332 )
英文信息