Modeling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic: a systematic review
Jinxing Guan
Yongyue Wei
Yang Zhao
Feng Chen
1.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School o Public Health,Center for Global Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211166,China.2.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School o Public Health,Center for Global Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211166,China.3.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School o Public Health,Center for Global Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211166,China.4.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School o Public Health,Center for Global Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211166,China.
摘要：The outbreak and rapid spread of COVID-19 has become a public health emergency of international concern. A number of studies have used modeling techniques and developed dynamic models to estimate the epidemiological parameters, explore and project the trends of the COVID-19, and assess the effects of intervention or control measures. We identified 63 studies and summarized the three aspects of these studies: epidemiological parameters estimation, trend prediction, and control measure evaluation. Despite the discrepancy between the predictions and the actuals, the dynamic model has made great contributions in the above three aspects. The most important role of dynamic models is exploring possibilities rather than making strong predictions about longer-term disease dynamics.
机标关键词：
分类号：R511(传染病)
资助基金：This study was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82041024 to F.C.)
论文发表日期：2020-11-30
在线出版日期：2025-08-15（本平台首次上网日期，不代表文献的发表时间）
页数：9( 422-430 )
英文信息