DOI: 10.1515/mr-2021-0022
Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic:applications and challenges
Jinxing Guan1
Yang Zhao2
Yongyue Wei3
Sipeng Shen1
Dongfang You1
Ruyang Zhang1
Theis Lange4
Feng Chen5
1.Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China2.Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China;China International Cooperation Center for Environment and Human Health,Center for Global Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China;Center of Biomedical BigData,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China3.Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China;China International Cooperation Center for Environment and Human Health,Center for Global Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China4.Department of Public Health,University of Copenhagen,Copenhagen,Denmark5.Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China;China International Cooperation Center for Environment and Human Health,Center for Global Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China
摘要：Since late 2019,the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making.Here,we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission,sum-marized transmission dynamics models into three main types:compartment extension,parameter extension and population-stratified extension models,highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic:estimating epidemiological parameters,pre-dicting the future trend,evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios.Finally,we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.
机标关键词：applicationsepidemicdynamicsmodelchallengescoronavirusdiseasetransmission
论文发表日期：2022-02-28
在线出版日期：2025-08-15（本平台首次上网日期，不代表文献的发表时间）
页数：21( 89-109 )
英文信息