Validity of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events in Acute Coronary Syndrome Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in A Sub-population of Chongqing

Khalill Ramjane; Han LEI; Jing CHANG

摘要：Objectives To determine the validity and applicability of the global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE) pre-diction model for in-hospital mortality in all forms of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in a sub population of Chongqing. Methods Data of 669 ACS patients were collected retrospectively from Jan 2005 to Apr 2008 and were re-corded on a standardized case report form. For each patient the GRACE risk score (GRACE RS) was calculated (using the GRACE calculator available from the grace website) using specific variables collected at admission. Patients with missing data and those transferred from other hospitals were excluded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted for the GRACE risk score. Results Among 576 ACS patients, 98 (17.01%), 36 (6. 25 %), and 442 (76. 74 %) presented with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (MI), non-ST elevation MI and unstable angina, re-spectively. The GRACE risk score could not be determined in 91 (9. 3 %) patients due to missing data or for patients who were transferred from other hospitals and were excluded from the analysis. The median GRACE risk score was 133 (interquartile range: 92 - 174) and, the in-hospital rates of death and death/(re-) MI were 6. 1% and 7.6 %, respec-tively. The GRACE risk score demonstrated excellent discrimination (c-statistic = 0. 86, 95 % CI 0. 79 - 0. 91, P < 0. 001) for in-hospital death/ (re) -MI. Conclusions The GRACE RS study had a good predictive accuracy for death or MI across the wide range of ACS in this population. It may be a useful risk stratification tool that helps identify high-risk patients who will benefit most from myocardial revascularization and low risk patients who may be spared from un-dergoing more aggressive interventional treatment.