The association between weekly mean temperature and the epidemic of influenza across 122 countries/regions,2014-2019
Xiaoxiao Cao1
Wenhao Zhu1
Zhenghan Luo2
Ran He1
Yihao Li1
Shirong Hui1
Sheng Yang3
Rongbin Yu1
Peng Huang1
1.Department of Epidemiology,National Vaccine Innovation Platform,Center for Global Health,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211166,China2.Department of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Ⅰ,Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Eastern Theater of Operations,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210002,China3.Department of Biostatistics,National Vaccine Innovation Platform,Center for Global Health,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211166,China
摘要：The study examined the association between weekly mean temperature and influenza cases across 122 countries/regions(2014-2019)using a distributed lag non-linear model.We analyzed 3 145 206 cases of overall influenza(Flu-All),with influenza A(Flu-A)and influenza B(Flu-B)accounting for 73.49%and 26.51%,respectively.Within a lag of two weeks,Flu-All incidence demonstrated a bimodal temperature relationship,with peak relative risks(RR)of 6.02(95%confidence interval[CI]:1.92-20.77)at-8℃and 3.08(95%CI:1.27-7.49)at 22℃.Flu-A exhibited a similar bimodal pattern,with RRs of 3.76(95%CI:2.39-5.91)at-8℃and 2.08(95%CI:1.55-2.80)at 22℃.Flu-B demonstrated a single risk peak at 1℃(RR=4.48,95%CI:1.74-11.55).Subgroup analyses of climate zones revealed variations:tropical zones peaked at 12℃(RR=1.37,95%CI:1.08-1.74),while dry and temperate zones exhibited the highest risks at-5℃,with RRs of 4.49(95%CI:2.46-7.15)and 5.23(95%CI:3.17-8.64),respectively.Cold zones peaked at 1℃(RR=5.96,95%CI:3.76-9.43).Subgroup analyses of influenza transmission zones revealed variations:Africa showed a higher risk between 6℃and 14℃,Asia showed a higher risk below 3℃,and Europe exhibited distinct risks of influenza peaks at-1℃(Eastern Europe),1℃(Southwestern Europe),and-20℃(Northern Europe).Elevated risks above 11℃were identified in the Americas and Oceania.These findings establish a predictive framework for influenza outbreak preparedness by integrating regional temperature patterns with global climate variability.
机标关键词：associationtemperatureepidemicbetweenmeanacrosscountriesinfluenza
分类号：R511.7(传染病)
论文发表日期：2025-11-30
在线出版日期：2026-01-15（本平台首次上网日期，不代表文献的发表时间）
页数：10( 601-610 )
英文信息