Study on the Correlation Between Fracture and Bone Mineral Density Caused by Military Training and the Construction of Prediction Model

WU Ming-hong; WANG Yi-tao; LU Wen-ting

摘要：Objective: Analyze the correlation between the bone mineral density value of army officers and soldiers and the fracture caused by military training, and construct the prediction model of the risk factors of the fracture caused by military training. Methods: A total of 1019 officers and soldiers in a military training unit from January 2015 to November 2020 were selected and divided into groups according to whether they were fractured during military training. The basic data were collected in the form of a questionnaire, and the bone mineral density of the forearm and wrist of all subjects were measured by osteosys exa-3000 dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in Korea. Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between bone mineral density and fractures caused by military training. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of fractures caused by military training, build a prediction model, and draw an ROC curve to verify its predictive value for fractures caused by military training. Results: There were statistically significant differences between patients with fractures caused by military training and those without fractures in previous fracture history, training period, self-evaluation of training intensity, the intensity of self-protection awareness, and bone mineral density (p<0.05);Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that past fracture history, training intensity, injury subjects, self-protection awareness, and bone mineral density were all independent factors influencing fractures caused by military training (P<0.05); Pearson correlation analysis showed that bone mineral density was negatively correlated with fractures caused by military training (r=0.686, P<0.01);a predictive model was constructed, model 1 was previous fracture history + training intensity + injury subjects + self-protection awareness, model 2 is the previous fracture history+training intensity+injury subjects +self-protection awareness+bone mineral density value.The area under the ROC curve of model 1 and model 2 were 0.729 (0.648-0.785) and 0.893 (0.837-0.914), respectively, and the Youde index were 0.415 and 0.682, respectively. Conclusion: There is a negative correlation between bone mineral density and fractures caused by military training. The prediction value of the fracture prediction model caused by military training constructed by the bone mineral density value is higher.